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From Socialist Appeal, Vol. 4 No. 45, 9 November 1940, pp. 1 & 2.
Transcribed & marked up by Einde O’Callaghan for the Encyclopaedia of Trotskyism On-Line (ETOL).
The Italian war machine has evidently not been able to maintain the same kind of schedule that Mussolini has always boasted he imposed upon the Italian railway system. The degree of resistance offered by the puny forces of the Greeks has of necessity not been great, but it has apparently been great enough to prevent Mussolini’s mountain troops from making it an easy jaunt over the Albanian passes.
Meanwhile those who were watching Turkey to see what would happen got their answer last week from President Inonu, who announced continued Turkish neutrality despite previous pledges of assistance to the Greeks in case of attack. The continued concentration of German troops on the Rumanian-Bulgarian border and the constantly repeated threat of a direct German attack on the Dardanelles may mean that the Turkish stand will avail little. When the diplomatic maneuvers are done with, the Axis drive for the Near East Will continue at the Nazi pace.
Meanwhile on the Far Eastern front there are ample indications of new developments of considerable magnitude. Last week Japanese forces began a systematic withdrawal from the south China province of Kwangsi. Nanning, the provincial capital, was reoccupied by the Chinese. A few days later, evacuation, of. the Kwangtung island base of Wai-chow was announced. Rumors soon multiplied. these evacuations. Chinese reports said that the Canton area might likewise soon be reoccupied. Similarly in Central China the Japanese were reportedly planning to fall back from Yochow and Ichang, farthermost points reached in last spring’s Yangtze river offensive.
The current explanation in the press here is that the Japanese are preparing for hostilities against the British, in particular against Hongkong, on the South China coast, and the naval base at Singapore. In support of this it is reported that many of the evacuating forces are being concentrated on Haipan, island off the South China coast.
However such a move would not be enough to explain in itself such extensive Japanese withdrawals from Chinese fronts. Japan’s main problem in the unfolding war situation has been the liquidation of the stalemate in China in order to free Japanese forces for further adventures against the British.
To this end a considerable effort has been made in recent months to get Gen. Chiang Kai-shek to talk peace with the Japanese. Chiang, who can clearly see a Japanese-American clash in the offing, has been in a position to take a stiff stand. In all previous parleys and presentations of peace terms, Chiang has always demanded Japanese evacuation of Chinese territory. This, until now, the Japanese have always refused to concede.
It may be, however, that the present withdrawals are part of the latest Japanese attempt to woo the Chungking regime into a peace. It is by no means likely that the evacuation is by agreement. It is far more likely that the Japanese are meeting a Chinese demand to demonstrate actual withdrawal before peace terms can be discussed. Since Prince Konoye took over the government in Tokyo a few months ago, there has been a disposition to recede from previous Japanese peace terms and to offer the Chinese removal of some garrisons. at least in South China. The present withdrawals may be part of such a design.
There remains another hypothesis: the withdrawals are designed as pressure on the negotiators at Moscow, a warning that Japan can move forces north as well as south in case of need. Further, they might be designed to weaken the, Soviet hand at Chungking.
In any event, important developments portend on a front that is likely to be of even greater importance from the standpoint of American workers than the war front in Europe.
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Last updated: 16 November 2020